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Rudy Will Win Florida

Written by Diamond Dog on 18 January 2008.

Rudy Giuliani has devised a bold and gutsy strategy for winning his party's nomination for president and it looks to me that he's well on his way to achieving this. Reports coming out of Florida are that Rudy is being received as a rock star with highly energized crowds flocking to his campaign. This is not an accident or happenstance. The fact is that the Giuliani Florida organization far outguns any of the competition and local activists are working hard for Hizzoner.
 
ImageHere are a sampling of headlines out of Florida;
 
The St. Petersburg Times’ David DeCamp: All eyes on him, Rudy Giuliani hit the hot Republican issues like it was batting practice. Cut taxes, fight terrorism, stop illegal immigration - whack, whack, whack.  (David DeCamp, Giuliani Strives To Rebuild Momentum, The St. Petersburg Times, 1/15/08)

 DeCamp: “On the sixth leg of a 15-event bus tour [Giuliani] moved with ease on stage Monday at the Shell Point retirement village church, gesturing and laying out his plans. More than 1,000 people listened.” (David DeCamp, Giuliani Strives To Rebuild Momentum,The St. Petersburg Times, 1/15/08)

 The Tampa Tribune’s William March: To some, he has almost rock-star status. (William March, Giuliani Bus Tour Rolls Through Area,The Tampa Tribune, 1/15/08)

 March: “Crowds were enthusiastic at most of the stops, swelled with retired New Yorkers - a group likely to be a major advantage for Giuliani in Florida(William March, Giuliani Bus Tour Rolls Through Area,The Tampa Tribune, 1/15/08)

 
What this means is that no one will have momentum going into Super Tuesday like Rudy Giuliani will and the pundits who'd claimed that his campaign had crafted the wrong strategy will themselves be proven wrong.
 
At the moment, the polls out of Florida show parity between Rudy, McCain and Romney. They are all crowded in at approximately 20 percent. There's a healthy 13 percent undecided at this point. Because of Rudy's appealing history of executive experience, his tough stance on the war on the Terrorists' War On Us, economic policies of a robust economy, illegal immigration policies and his history of remarkable achievement as mayor of New York and his response in a moment of crisis on 9/11 among other planks of his campaign such as his pledge to appoint strict constructionist judges to the SCOTUS, Rudy will benefit the most from grabbing that 13 percent.
 
Of course, things will change on the ground as we still have primaries and caucuses in Nevada, South Carolina and Hawaii prior to Florida. Rudy will not win any of those contests, meaning that someone else will and there will be jockeying for position amongst those three front runners. For the benefit of Rudy's campaign, I'd like to pick Fred Thompson to win South Carolina. A win for Fred in SC would  further constitute chaos in the party with no one leading strongly enough to challenge Rudy's huge momentum coming out of Florida. But it looks like the reality will be that South Carolina will be taken by either McCain or Romney. This will lend some oomph to whoever that winner is and there will be talk of momentum on his behalf. But the Rudy juggernaut in Florida will snuff that momentum right out.
 
Because Florida is winner take all, Rudy will capture 57 delegates on January 29th. This win in Florida will provide the momentum his campaign will need to dominate on Super Tuesday. It seems to me that when that moment arrives, there will be a lot of second guessing among the chattering classes. Many of them will say, "Well, Rudy really had this thing all along, as the polls showed him dominating all of last year."
Hindsight is 20/20.
 
Rudy's coming win in Florida spells great news for Republicans and the nation as a whole, because Rudy is the only Republican who can beat the Democratic nominee this year.
 
Finally, I should note that I am a volunteer for Rudy's campaign. Nevertheless, I don't mind saying that I am not trying to create spin here. I'm merely telling it like I'm seeing it.
 
We can't afford to not have Rudy as our next president.