|
I don't gamble, as a matter of simple mathematical common sense. Unless the probability of winning multiplied by the payoff amount exceeds the price of the bet (benefit/cost ratio exceeds 1.00), it makes no economic sense to play. In the case where the ratio is exactly 1.00, like for the office football pool, I will sometimes indulge for the entertainment value. Others set the entertainment value higher and enjoy playing the lottery, for example, even though the benefit/ cost ratio is fixed at something like 0.5. I usually get the best of both worlds because I don't usually put any money down on my bets. You can play the game of political guessing for free, yet still have the thrill of winning, of being right.
What I'm really thinking about is the Democrat National Convention (or is it the Democratic National Convention; I can never keep that straight because it certainly isn't democratic). Now that Hillary will be officially nominated, there will be a roll call vote on the floor. I have been saying, and so far I have seen no pundit saying otherwise, that Barack cannot lose this vote. The pundits base their presumption on the idea that Barack "locked up the nomination" because of a slim lead in primary delegates (not all of them committed to him by rule) and a slim lead in superdelegates, NONE of whom are committed by rule to his nomination. My presumption, on the other hand, has been based on the attitude of Democrats that they are intellectually superior to everybody else and that if they think BO is The One, then the rest of us had better just get in line. In other words, even an Obama trailing in the polls can win, because he OUGHT to win. What they believe should happen will happen; it's the "Vision of the Annointed" made manifest. My proof is that Al Franken, an obviously unsuitable candidate, was endorsed by the DFL on the first ballot.
But suppose that, in the process of taking this roll call vote, a few superdelegates decide to change their mind, and a few state delegates do likewise? After all, what can it hurt to vote one's affirmative action conscience-- the woman instead of the black guy-- if Obama has it locked up? Unless there is a coordinated effort to "fix" the results of the first ballot, the sort of practical politics the Obama campaign has shown remarkable incompetence in doing, there is the possibility of a Hillary "upset." I don't know what the odds are, but the entertainment value is just priceless! Place your bets.
|
